Worthy of at least a cautious hooya!, a survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines. "The great recession is over," said NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser. Recessions in the United States are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The private-sector group, which does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product, often takes months to make determinations.

The current recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest since the 1930s. It was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the ensuing global credit crisis. The NABE survey, conducted in September, predicted real GDP growth expanding at a 2.9 percent pace over the second half of this year. Output for the whole of 2009 is expected to contract 2.5 percent and next year, rebound to 2.6 percent.

However, weak household spending and a jobless recovery will inhibit the pace of growth. The jobless rate climbed to 9.8 percent in September -- a 26-year high -- from 9.7 percent in August. The survey predicted that the unemployment rate would rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and edge down to 9.5 percent by the end of that year. The labor market was not expected to regain most the jobs destroyed in the current recession until 2012 or beyond. On the  other hand, two-thirds of respondents believed house prices would reach a bottom this year and the survey found that high house prices would not pose a threat to the sector's recovery. Respondents also expected the U.S. dollar to weaken further this year and into 2010, but did not see this contributing to a narrowing of the country trade deficit as the economic revival stimulates demand for imports.

National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers argued measures put in place by the administration, including a $787 billion stimulus package, had helped turn back the deepest U.S. recession since the Great Depression. "The Obama administration has helped pull the U.S. economy back from the 'abyss' with aggressive efforts to spur growth and stabilize financial markets," a top White House adviser said on Monday, all policies that Republicans have attacked as ineffective. "Thanks largely to the Recovery Act, alongside an aggressive financial stabilization plan and a program to keep responsible homeowners in their homes, we have walked a substantial distance back from the economic abyss and are on the path toward economic recovery," Summers wrote to House Republican leader John Boehner.

What does this mean for the tantric industry? With improving credit markets, the U.S. economy will likely return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation, making it possible to sell vacation retreats again in late 2010.

 
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